Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $89,141$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.32 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{70,947.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(70,947.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,912$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,726.2}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,726.2\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $60,627$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $534,513$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(9.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{927,541.8}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 202.1)}}\) (asimptote \(927,541.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,594$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(138.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,174.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28,174.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $354,543$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $354,932$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(9.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{308,616.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 58.9)}}\) (asimptote \(308,616.8\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,675$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(107.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,712.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40,712.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $311,430$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $280,153$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{246,034.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(246,034.2\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,563$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,732.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(34,732.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,789$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $85,707$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,949.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.4)}}\) (asimptote \(85,949.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,838$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(95.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,727.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,727.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $79,869$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $373,718$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(7.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{257,655.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 60.9)}}\) (asimptote \(257,655.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,770$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(122.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,765.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,765.2\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $254,072$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $79,792$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.86 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,630.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 55.9)}}\) (asimptote \(60,630.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,279$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(124.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,127.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,127.7\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $71,844$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,080$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,226.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(26,226.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,778$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(694 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(107.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,736.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,736.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,938$ on 2020-09-08