Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $89,141$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.32 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{70,947.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(70,947.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,912$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,726.2}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,726.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $60,627$ on 2020-09-08

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $534,513$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(9.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{927,541.8}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 202.1)}}\) (asimptote \(927,541.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,594$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(138.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,174.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28,174.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $354,543$ on 2020-09-08

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $354,932$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(9.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{308,616.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 58.9)}}\) (asimptote \(308,616.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,675$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(107.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,712.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40,712.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $311,430$ on 2020-09-08

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $280,153$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{246,034.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(246,034.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,563$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,732.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(34,732.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,789$ on 2020-09-08

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $85,707$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,949.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.4)}}\) (asimptote \(85,949.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,838$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(95.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,727.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,727.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $79,869$ on 2020-09-08

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $373,718$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(7.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{257,655.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 60.9)}}\) (asimptote \(257,655.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,770$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(122.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,765.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,765.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $254,072$ on 2020-09-08

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $79,792$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.86 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,630.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 55.9)}}\) (asimptote \(60,630.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,279$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(124.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,127.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,127.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $71,844$ on 2020-09-08

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,080$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,226.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(26,226.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,778$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(694 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(107.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,736.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,736.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,938$ on 2020-09-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Armenia recovered 72%
Malta recovered 49%
Russia recovered 32%
Poland recovered 28%

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,953$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.79 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,632.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 105.9)}}\) (asimptote \(44,632.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $903$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(76.5 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{906.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 98.7)}}\) (asimptote \(906.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,458$ on 2020-09-08

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,099$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(144 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.55 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $356$ on 2020-09-08

Russia⮸

Population $145,934,462$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,032,354$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{991,262.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 88.2)}}\) (asimptote \(991,262.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17,939$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,058.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 90.4)}}\) (asimptote \(18,058.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $166,669$ on 2020-09-08

Poland⮸

Population $37,846,611$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $71,526$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(7.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,559.7}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 143.2)}}\) (asimptote \(99,559.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,136$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(420 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,994.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 74.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,994.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,480$ on 2020-09-08